The U.S. economy has not officially entered a recession, but alarming trends are emerging. Over half of U.S. industries are reducing workforce numbers, signaling potential economic contraction ahead. Mark Zandi highlights that the beginnings of recessions are often clearer only in hindsight. He underscores the importance of payroll employment data in predicting downturns. Although current jobs data do not indicate a fall in employment, recent downward revisions could mean declines are already occurring. The average job growth over the last three months is just 35,000, far under expectations.
Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi cautions that while the U.S. economy isn't in recession yet, over half of industries are currently reducing their workforce.
Zandi emphasizes that a recession's beginning is typically only identified in retrospect and relies on various indicators like personal income and employment.
He notes that payroll employment data is critical; if there are consecutive declines, it would indicate a downturn, despite current overall employment not showing a decrease.
Recent adjustments to employment data have been significantly downward, suggesting the possibility of already eroding job figures.
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