In a 49-49 race, the theoretical margin of error is ±6 points, meaning significant uncertainty exists in the polling results. This inherent volatility raises questions about poll accuracy.
Of the 249 polls conducted in battleground states that met proper standards, 78% showed the candidates within 2.5 points of each other, indicating potential herding among pollsters.
Given the reliance on a smaller sample size in individual polls, there should be more outliers than observed, suggesting that the current polling landscape is atypical.
The data suggests that the current polling results reveal a level of agreement among polls that is statistically unlikely, hinting at possible herding behavior influencing the outcomes.
#polling-analysis #election-forecasting #statistical-margin-of-error #herding-behavior #political-campaigns
Collection
[
|
...
]