Polling showed Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn in most polls before Trump endorsed Paxton on May 19. Paxton’s polling margins were larger than before the March primary, when Cornyn beat Paxton by just over a point. The endorsement increased Paxton’s blowout margins, but it did not create the win itself. Trump endorsed after concluding Paxton would win, shaping expectations and centering the endorsement around Trump. The endorsement may allow Cornyn to vote according to conscience, but it more importantly links the GOP with Ken Paxton’s alleged moral and legal corruption. The endorsement also keeps Trump’s own corruption on the ballot in November.
"According to recent polling, Ken Paxton was leading John Cornyn in most polls before Trump endorsed Paxton last Tuesday, May 19. Paxon had a larger margin in polls than he had before the March primary in which Cornyn beat Paxton by just over a point. Which is to say, Paxton was already likely to win before Trump endorsed him. Trump's endorsement undoubtedly led to Paxton's blowout margins, but it did not create the win itself."
"That's being missed from much of the coverage of the result. Trump saw that Paxton was going to win and only then did Trump endorse, endorsing in a way that created certain expectations for Paxton (albeit expectations largely divorced from likely reality if Paxton were to win) and more importantly made the endorsement all about Trump. Me me me."
"But the more important thing this endorsement does is brand the GOP - Trump's GOP - with Ken Paxton's moral and legal corruption. That outcome was entirely avoidable. But Trump chose to do it anyway. Because "me me me." And if Trump's own corruption weren't already on the ballot in November (though unless Republicans find a way to shut down the Terrorist Slush Fund, it will be), his endorsement of Paxton will ensure it is."
"Right wingers are loathe to admit how corrupt Trump is. That's far harder to do for Paxton."
Read at emptywheel
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