The article reflects on the author's analysis of predictions made regarding the 2024 U.S. presidential election results, specifically focusing on the accuracy of predicted winning margins in seven swing states. The author made three key predictions based on high-quality polls and adjusted the margins by considering the polling biases observed in the previous two elections. Despite initial attempts to integrate other election data, the author dismissed those predictions due to flawed reasoning, ultimately honing in on the most impactful predictive models to determine the candidates' chances of winning based on expected electoral votes.
I integrated the polling bias from 2016 and 2020 because election dynamics have significantly changed; 2024 will be much closer to 2020 and 2016 than earlier elections.
It's probably unrealistic to assume there will be negligible systematic polling error in swing states as it is to assume it'll be as big as in 2016/20.
The initial analysis led to the exclusion of predictions ④ and ⑤ due to incorrect assumptions about polling errors from 2012 and 2022.
Predicting the winning margin in the seven swing states allowed for calculating candidates' probabilities of winning and expected electoral votes.
#2024-presidential-election #polling-analysis #swing-states #election-predictions #political-forecasting
Collection
[
|
...
]