As of Oct. 16, Trump had a 45% favorability rating among likely voters, while Harris had a higher favorability at 49.3%, suggesting a potential 4-point lead for Harris.
Historically, a candidate's favorability rating is highly correlated with their ultimate share of the vote, providing better predictive power than mere head-to-head matchups.
Trump's losing in 2020 exemplified that unlike in 2016, voters generally favored one of the two nominees, contributing to Biden's success over Trump despite a narrow popular vote margin.
To reconcile the favorability and head-to-head polling numbers, it indicates that the 'double haters' are affecting Harris's standings significantly, revealing a nuanced challenge in voter sentiment.
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