The contrasting outcomes of the last two elections reveal that understanding electoral behavior is more complex than merely predicting who will win, as many underlying factors influence voter decisions.
Pollsters have adjusted their methodologies since 2020, trying to account for previous errors, yet past voting memory issues could still lead to misrepresentation in current polling.
The stark difference between the 2016 and 2020 elections showcases changing political landscapes, such as Florida transitioning to a Republican stronghold and the reliability of state polling.
This time around, pollsters are emphasizing corrective strategies for better inclusivity in their samples, focusing on past voters’ affiliations, but these adjustments carry their own risks.
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