The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll revealed Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters, shifting prediction markets significantly.
After the poll results, prediction markets reflected this shift with Trump’s odds dropping significantly; on Kalshi, Trump went from a 64% advantage to just a tie with Harris.
As the prediction markets adjusted in real-time, PredictIt showed Harris experiencing a 4.1% increase in her chances, paralleling Trump's decline in the same percentage.
Understanding how election betting works is crucial; it mirrors other betting markets, where significant data updates, like polls, drastically influence candidate odds.
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