First, it's best to compare 2024 to this point in a presidential election like 2020 and 2016. A midterm year like 2022 has a very different electorate and turnout than a presidential year.
What we still don't know, however, is if he will be able to get beyond the ceiling of support he's had in those two elections. If he does break that ceiling, it will likely be due to his ability to attract younger and voters of color to his coalition.
If Democrats are able to defy the odds and expectations, it will show that abortion rights remained an extremely salient issue.
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