Extending a pattern that stretches back decades, White voters without a college degree, the cornerstone of the modern GOP coalition, have declined by a little more than 2 percentage points as a share of eligible voters since 2020, falling below 40% of the eligible voting pool for the first time ever, according to a new analysis of the latest Census Bureau data by demographer William Frey shared exclusively with CNN.
While those working-class Whites are shrinking, Frey found that both Whites with at least a four-year college degree and voters of color have each increased since 2020 by about a single percentage point as a share of eligible voters. Those increases continue long-term trends that have seen well-educated Whites grow to represent more than 1-in-4 eligible voters and people of color rise past 1-in-3.
In a race so close, small shifts in the electorate can impact the overall results significantly. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are both strategizing around these demographic shifts to capture crucial votes.
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