The impending local elections hold significance as a review of new Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch's performance. Unlike previous years, the elections are primarily in Conservative regions, with few major cities participating. Historical context shows that councils contested in 2021 saw the Conservatives under Boris Johnson perform well initially but faced issues from the partygate scandal. Polling indicates a potential decline for Tories compared to Reform Party, which may signal shifting political sentiments in the country as changes to voting systems in mayoral races introduce new elements to consider.
In many other years, the first set of local elections with a new government and prime minister in place would be scrutinized keenly as a judgment on the PM's performance so far.
This year the runes will be harder to read because so many of the councils that are up are Conservative councils in Conservative areas.
A poll last month suggested that the Tories would have fewer councillors elected on 1 May than Reform.
The last time these council seats were contested, in most cases, was in 2021, when the Conservatives under Boris Johnson were riding high in the polls.
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