Tesla's Biggest Market Continues to Disappoint

"Our conversation began with the latest report out of Europe. I told Lee that the region's automotive association released monthly sales showing Tesla down 49 percent and BYD up an astonishing 210 percent. Unit for unit, BYD is pulling away. The trend is not isolated. China just delivered Tesla its third-worst month in three years, and U.S. market share has collapsed from 80 percent in 2019 to about 45 percent today."

"Lee and I both agreed that Tesla's valuation, still among the ten most valuable companies in the world-is being held aloft by Musk's narrative around robotics, AI, and autonomous driving. But narratives eventually require evidence. Lee pointed out that even after last year's dramatic selloff, Tesla has climbed back above 400, despite persistently weak operational numbers. The gap between the storyline and the fundamentals is widening."

"Lee stressed that Tesla cannot sustain share losses without addressing its lineup. The Cybertruck appeals to a narrow audience. The absence of an affordable 25,000 dollar sedan or a 35,000 dollar family SUV leaves Tesla exposed to every competitor with mass-market pricing. Meanwhile, in places like Tupelo, Mississippi, he sees one Cybertruck, singular, because very few households view it as a practical vehicle."

"I told Lee that Musk's long-promised self-driving dominance is now facing pressure from all sides. Alphabet's Waymo continues expanding in major U.S. cities, and reports indicate Chinese companies already operate autonomous fleets with performance exceeding Tesla's current system. True autonomy means I should be able to sit in the backseat with a beer and let the car legally take me anywhere. No one is close to that yet, but Tesla is not meaningfull"

European monthly sales show Tesla down 49% while BYD rose 210%, with BYD pulling away unit for unit. China produced Tesla’s third-worst month in three years, and U.S. market share fell from 80% in 2019 to about 45% today. Tesla’s valuation remains among the ten most valuable companies, buoyed by Musk’s robotics, AI, and autonomous-driving narrative, but operational metrics remain weak. The product lineup lacks affordable mass-market models such as a $25,000 sedan or $35,000 family SUV, leaving Tesla vulnerable. Cybertruck appeals narrowly. Competitors including Waymo and Chinese autonomous fleets are advancing and true full autonomy is not yet achieved.

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