"Every few months, the developer tool hype machine finds a new hero. In 2023, it was GitHub Copilot, the AI pair programmer that made autocomplete feel like magic. In 2024, the vibe shifted to Cursor and the new class of AI-first editors. And now, at least on X, Google's "agent-first" Antigravity is being pitched as the next inevitable thing. Meanwhile, the model layer keeps whiplashing."
"That is why, even in 2026, the gravitational center of day-to-day development still looks a lot like Microsoft, with VS Code as the workbench, GitHub as the workflow hub, and Copilot as the default assistant bolted onto both. Hence, the real question isn't "Will AI replace the IDE?" but rather "Who owns the control plane when AI becomes part of the IDE?""
Developer tooling experiences rapid hype cycles, with GitHub Copilot in 2023, Cursor and AI-first editors in 2024, and Google's Antigravity emerging more recently. The model layer has shifted from ChatGPT to Gemini to Claude as developer preferences evolve. Tool churn does not guarantee sustained adoption; distribution and enterprise integration determine lasting usage. Microsoft’s ecosystem functions as the operational center, with VS Code as the workbench, GitHub as the workflow hub, and Copilot as the default assistant. A 2025 JetBrains survey of 24,534 developers found 85% use AI tools and 62% rely on at least one AI coding assistant. Stack Overflow reported VS Code at 75.9% overall and 76.2% among professionals, while Cursor reached 17.9% and many new editors integrate with the VS Code ecosystem.
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