"Following their 1-1 draw with the Black Cats on Wednesday, Liverpool have failed to win three successive games at Anfield in all competitions for the first time since a run of eight in March 2021. Arne Slot's team have not enjoyed their recent away trips either in the Premier League, having lost seven of their last 11 top-flight away games (W4), with only Fulham and Wolves (eight each) losing more since the start of April."
"However, Liverpool are unbeaten in their last six Premier League away games against Leeds (W4 D2), winning 6-1 on their most recent visit to Elland Road in April 2023. The Reds' last two league victories against Leeds have been by 6-0 and 6-1 scorelines. Only Arsenal have scored six or more goals against an opponent in three different Premier League games before (versus Blackburn Rovers)."
"After running 10,000 simulations of this match, the Opta supercomputer predicts that Liverpool will return to winning ways at Elland Road. The Reds have been given a 55.8% chance of victory, while Leeds have a 22.1% probability of recording back-to-back wins for the first time in the league this season. A draw has been given a likelihood of 22%, though Leeds will be desperate to build on their home win against Chelsea during the week."
Liverpool have struggled in recent weeks, drawing 1-1 with Sunderland and failing to win three consecutive matches at Anfield for the first time since March 2021. The team have lost seven of their last 11 Premier League away games, a marked deterioration compared with a prior 45-game period that produced seven away defeats between January 2023 and February 2025. Liverpool beat West Ham 2-0 in their most recent away game and will travel to Elland Road to face Leeds, who surprisingly beat Chelsea. Historical head-to-heads favour Liverpool away to Leeds, and Opta simulations favour a Liverpool win.
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