"What's expected? Inter - the designated 'home' side for this derby - are favourites for victory with the Opta supercomputer, coming out on top in 47.8% of pre-match simulations. Milan are assigned a 26.2% chance of victory, with 26% of projections being drawn. In the supercomputer's season predictions, Inter are favoured for the title in 57.8% of simulations, with Milan assigned a 10.8% chance of claiming the crown. Roma (14.1%) are more favoured than the Rossoneri, with Napoli at 10.1%."
"But recent editions of the Derby della Madonnina have tended to favour the team in red and black. The teams met five times last season overall, twice in Serie A, twice in the Coppa Italia and once in the Supercopa Italiana. Milan went unbeaten throughout those fixtures, winning three and drawing two, having lost the previous six derbies beforehand. The Rossoneri have not recorded a longer unbeaten run against their city rivals since enjoying a 10-match streak between November 2002 and April 2005."
Napoli have started their Scudetto defence reasonably, but the crown could return to Milan this season. Inter sit top with 24 points from 11 matches under Cristian Chivu, ahead of Roma on goal difference. AC Milan are one point behind and on a two-month unbeaten run under Massimiliano Allegri. Opta simulations give Inter 57.8% title probability and 47.8% derby win probability; Milan have 10.8% and 26.2% respectively. Milan went unbeaten against Inter across five meetings last season, winning three and drawing two, their longest derby run since 2002–2005. Inter have not won any of their last 11 matches against Milan, Juventus or Napoli since April 2024 (five draws, six losses).
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