"When Aston Villa visited Hill Dickinson Stadium in September, Everton were riding high after back-to-back wins and Unai Emery's team were yet to score a Premier League goal. That game finished goalless, though Everton could consider themselves unfortunate. They had 20 shots and generated chances worth 2.08 expected goals (xG) to Villa's 0.54 xG. However, the Toffees only managed to have two attempts on target."
"Villa went on to score their first goal of the campaign the following week, in a 1-1 draw against Sunderland. Since then, Villa have not looked back. They have won 13 Premier League matches, more than any other team in that timeframe, and have scored 32 goals, second only to Manchester City (36), despite registering just 21.9 xG. Only four teams have conceded fewer goals than Villa (19) in that time."
"What's expected? The Opta supercomputer is backing Villa to continue their challenge for the Premier League title, assigning them a 64.4% chance of victory over David Moyes' side. Indeed, among its pre-match simulations, only Liverpool (76.3%) have been handed a higher win probability on matchday 22. Everton are predicted to earn all three points in just 16.6% of scenarios, while the chances of them taking a point back to Merseyside are rated at 19%."
When Aston Villa visited Hill Dickinson Stadium in September, Everton had back-to-back wins and Emery's team had yet to score a Premier League goal. That game ended 0-0 despite Everton having 20 shots and 2.08 xG to Villa's 0.54 xG but only two efforts on target. Villa scored their first goal the following week and then won 13 Premier League matches, scoring 32 goals while registering 21.9 xG and conceding 19. Everton have struggled for goals since, leaving nine league places and 14 points between the clubs. Opta projects Villa with a 64.4% win probability, Everton 16.6%, draw 19%.
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