"Chief among the burdens weighing upon the weary sports parent-worse than the endless commutes, the exorbitant fees, the obnoxious parents on the other team-is the sense that your every decision has the power to make or break your child's future. Should your 11-year-old show up to her elementary-school holiday concert, even if it means missing a practice with the elite soccer team to which you've pledged 100 percent attendance?"
"that it matters, though, can be strangely reassuring, because of the suggestion that the future is under your control. Forecasting athletic careers is an imperfect science: Not every top draft pick pans out; not every star was a top draft pick. Unexpected injuries aside, the imprecision of our predictions is usually seen as a measurement problem. If we could only figure out which factors mattered most-how to quantify talent, which types of practice best develop it-we would be able to plot athletic trajectories with confidence."
Many sports parents feel that every scheduling decision can determine a child's athletic future, heightening stress over choices like attending a holiday concert versus a crucial practice. Conventional wisdom holds that reaching professional levels requires both talent and extensive practice, with debates over precise ratios such as 10,000 hours versus genetic advantages. Worrying about a single missed practice is irrational yet emotionally consoling because it suggests control over outcomes. Forecasting athletic careers remains imperfect: top draft picks sometimes fail while stars may emerge from obscurity. Prediction errors are often attributed to measurement shortcomings. The possibility that luck plays a decisive role is raised.
Read at The Atlantic
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