Why mortgage purchase apps are holding up even with rising rates

"Mortgage rates have ranged between 5.99% -6.64% 9 positive week-over-week prints 8 negative week-to-week prints 1 flat week-to-week print 9 weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth 16weeks of positive year-over-year growth 2 negative year-over-year print"

"Typically, when mortgage rates get above 7% the housing demand data gets weaker and when mortgage rates get below 6.64% and head toward 6% the data improves. So far this year, mortgage rates haven't broken above 6.64%. Now that inflation is rising, we see more Fed governors talking hawkishly. Just today, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said current policy is well positioned, but emphasized rates may need to stay restrictive for an extended period."

"She also mentioned that rates could even rise if inflation persists. We are getting more and more Fed hawks as the Iran conflict continues. Last year, the housing dynamic shifted when mortgage rates fell below 6.64% and headed toward 6%, resulting in a 9-month high in sales in December of 2025. Then we had a holiday, an epic snowstorm, and the start of the Iran conflict, all of which pushed rates higher."

"My HousingWire 2026 forecast called for 237,000 more existing home sales, assuming mortgage rates stay below 6.25%. We still have some time left in the year for growth, but if mortgage rates rise above my peak forecast of 6.75% in the second half of the year due to inflation and tighter spreads, that growth level becomes much harder to achieve. However, if the conflict ends and yields and rates fall, just back to under 6.25%, we have a shot."

Mortgage rates have moved between 5.99% and 6.64% with nine week-over-week increases, eight decreases, and one flat reading. Year-over-year results show nine weeks of double-digit growth and sixteen weeks of positive growth, with only two negative weeks. Housing demand typically weakens when mortgage rates rise above 7% and improves as rates fall below 6.64% toward 6%. Inflation is rising, prompting more hawkish Fed commentary, including a view that policy may need to remain restrictive for an extended period and that rates could rise if inflation persists. Housing has remained firm, but conditions are approaching levels where demand usually slows. A forecast for additional existing home sales depends on rates staying below 6.25%, while higher rates above 6.75% would make that growth harder to achieve.

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