"The AEI data shows that housing prices nationwide edged up a puny 1.1% in the twelve months ended in February, the slowest rate of appreciation since the AEI started collecting numbers at the start of 2012."
"The AEI is projecting that for the first three weeks of April, the trend will go negative, and by the end of this year, single family houses on average will be fetching 1% less than at the start of 2026."
"From 2013 to early 2020, home price appreciation consistently registered at between 5% and 7%. Then, the Fed supplied the rocket fuel by slashing interest rates, sending mortgage costs plummeting."
"The bounty flowed mostly to the Sun Belt and a suite of glamorous western cities, notably Denver, Seattle, Portland and Boise, with Florida, Texas and California leading the way."
The U.S. housing market is undergoing a historic reversion to the mean, with a mere 1.1% increase in prices over the past year, the slowest since 2012. Projections indicate a negative trend for April and an average price drop of 1% by the end of 2026, with further declines expected in 2027 and 2028. This marks a stark contrast to the pre-pandemic boom, where home price appreciation was consistently between 5% and 7%, driven by low mortgage rates and high demand in the Sun Belt and western cities.
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