"A mediator from Oman just the day before the bombing started said the two countries were making good progress on a nuclear deal. The message instead: 'The US can't be trusted.' To suggest that this will lead to regime change is 'naive,' Zunes says: The Revolutionary Guards have as much control of the country as the official supreme leader, and eliminating a few more top Iranians won't matter much."
"The way could easily escalate and spread. The outcome: 'This is just going to end up killing a lot of people.' Zunes is not a fan of the Iranian regime, which he calls 'criminal.' More than 3,000 people have died just in the past month as the brutal, oppressive government has cracked down on protests."
"In the past, US bombing campaigns have undermined democracy movements, and this may set back any efforts by the majority of the Iranian people who dislike the current government: 'It's hard to kick out their evil regime when bombs are falling on them.'"
The US initiated military action against Iran despite a mediator from Oman reporting progress on nuclear negotiations the day before bombing began. Expert analysis indicates this decision sends a message that the US cannot be trusted. Regime change through military action is unlikely given the Revolutionary Guards' significant power alongside the supreme leader. The conflict risks escalation and widespread casualties. While the Iranian government is characterized as brutal and oppressive, historical precedent shows US bombing campaigns have undermined democratic movements. Military intervention may hinder efforts by Iranian citizens seeking to remove their government, as external bombing complicates internal resistance efforts.
#us-iran-conflict #military-intervention #democracy-and-foreign-policy #middle-east-geopolitics #civilian-casualties
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