An unclassified intelligence assessment from the Danish Defence Intelligence Service warns that Russia is gearing up for possible conflict against NATO, potentially within five years. The report highlights that while there is no current intention from Russia to initiate warfare, significant military capacity is being developed. The DDIS emphasizes that NATO could be viewed by Russia as weakened or divided, thus becoming a target for aggression. Moreover, the assessment indicates that Russia may struggle to manage a simultaneous war in Ukraine and with NATO successfully.
Russia perceives itself as being in conflict with the West and is preparing for a war against NATO. While no decision to initiate such a war has been made, Russia is building the capacity to make that choice if deemed necessary.
Within five years, Russia could see an opportunity to launch a full-scale war on Europe should Moscow perceive NATO as militarily weakened or potentially divided.
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