The important thing to watch for with the new listings is when we transition from this era of very few sellers to one with a more historically normal level of sellers. Currently, there are 60,000 to 70,000 new listings per week compared to around 80,000 before the pandemic. This indicates that while listings are increasing, they aren't at a significant level that would suggest a dramatic shift in the market from the limited supply we've seen.
Austin has more inventory sitting on the market now than any time in the past decade, but intriguingly, that doesn't stem from a flood of sellers. In fact, Austin currently has 3% fewer new listings each week compared to 2019. The rise in inventory is due more to a shift in homebuyer demand than an increase in sellers, which suggests that changes in buyer behavior are impacting the market more than the supply side.
Of the 100 biggest inventory metros around the country, 76% have fewer new listings each week than they did in 2019. This scarcity indicates a broader trend across the U.S. housing market, where high levels of demand and low levels of seller activity are likely to persist. Markets like Spartanburg, McAllen, and Huntsville are exceptions but remain notable for their increased seller activity driven by investors and builders, suggesting local trends can sometimes diverge from national patterns.
While some areas like Tampa and Sarasota might seem poised for a seller surge post-hurricane, the data suggests otherwise; these markets also have fewer sellers than the norm. The devastation has likely kept sellers at bay, implying that we might not see a significant influx of listings in Florida just yet, further reinforcing that the current low-supply environment is a nationwide occurrence rather than localized to a few cities.
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