"The LO population surged during the pandemic as historically low mortgage rates fueled refinance and purchase activity. At its peak, the producing LO workforce approached 290,000 as lenders rapidly expanded hiring to meet demand with interest rates in the 2% to 4% range. That expansion was followed by widespread layoffs, bankruptcies, and mergers and acquisitions as rates rose sharply and origination volumes collapsed."
"The number of producing LOs steadily declined, hitting a post-pandemic low point in 2024. The recovery since then has been slow and uneven. Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) data shows that three different sources the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Nationwide Multistate Licensing System (NMLS) and the MBA's own Quarterly Performance Report indicate a consistent trend: Industry employment has stabilized in the past six quarters compared to the period of dramatic decline from 2021 to 2023."
Final figures will be confirmed once the license renewal grace period ends in February. Early analysis suggests more producing loan originators were active at some point during 2025 compared with the prior year. The LO population surged during the pandemic, peaking near 290,000 when interest rates were in the 2% to 4% range, then declined due to layoffs, bankruptcies, and mergers as rates rose and originations collapsed. Producing LO counts hit a post-pandemic low in 2024, with a slow, uneven recovery and stabilization of industry employment over the past six quarters. Originations are forecast to increase through 2027, and employment recovered unevenly across lender types.
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