New homeowner data challenges mortgage rate lockdown theory
Briefly

New homeowner data challenges mortgage rate lockdown theory
"Not only do these homeowners have substantial selling equity, but their FICO scores since 2010 have been excellent, and their cash flows and total wages relative to their mortgage payments have been low. So, with a lot of selling equity and higher total wages, they have been able to sell their home and buy another one, even with a higher mortgage rate."
"more people now have mortgage rates above 6% than below 3% and the share of households with mortgage rates between 3% and 6% has also fallen in the past few years. In addition, since Q1 of 2022, the number of homeowners with mortgage rates between 2%-5% has been falling as a percentage of mortgage rates outstanding. Homeowners with mortgage rates at 6% or higher: Q1 2022: 6.99% Q3 2025: 21.2%"
Mortgage rate distribution shifted significantly between Q1 2022 and Q3 2025, with the share of homeowners at 6% or higher rising and those at 3% or lower declining. The proportion of homeowners with rates between 3% and 4% also fell. The count of homeowners with 2%–5% rates has decreased as a percentage of outstanding mortgages. Monthly payments depend on more than the interest rate; home prices, property taxes, insurance, and loan size influence total payments. Many sellers hold substantial equity, maintain high FICO scores, and have stronger wages, supporting transaction activity. Foreclosure levels remain below 2019, while inventory has increased but not fully normalized.
Read at www.housingwire.com
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