"Current 30-year fixed mortgage rates are at 6.45% according to Mortgage News Daily, marking an 11-month low. Mortgage rates reached a high this week of 6.53% and are now down 8 basis points from those levels after two softer labor reports: the job openings report on Wednesday and today's ADP jobs report. Recent reports have indicated a softening labor market, as evidenced by the July BLS Nonfarm Payroll report and continuing jobless claims, which reached a three-year high in 2025."
"For me, since 2022, it's been labor over inflation when talking about mortgage rates, and the only reason mortgage rates have tended to fall in 2023, 2024 and 2025 is when the market sees data that created an economic or job market scare. So a lot has been priced into the mortgage market currently, and the 10-year yield has had an impossible task of breaking under 4.18% this year."
"One of the things I have tried to stress is that the labor data has been soft recently. It won't take much to see some kind of improvement from a three-month average of 35,000 jobs per month in the payroll report tomorrow and any improvement or beating of estimates can send bond yields and mortgage rates higher. For some time I've been concerned that we are losing jobs in manufacturing and residential construction, and even the specialty trade construction labor is falling now."
Current 30-year fixed mortgage rates sit at 6.45%, an 11-month low after a drop from a 6.53% weekly high following softer labor reports. Multiple labor indicators—including job openings, ADP, BLS Nonfarm Payrolls, and rising continuing claims—show a cooling labor market. Mortgage-rate movements have been driven more by labor trends than inflation, and additional declines depend on the 10-year Treasury yield breaking and staying below 4.18% with follow-up bond buying. Federal Reserve comments signaling no 2025 rate cuts could limit downside. Weakness in manufacturing and residential construction employment adds downside risk to labor-market strength.
Read at www.housingwire.com
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