"On Tuesday, HousingWire's Mortgage Rates Center, which tracks locked loans, showed that 30-year conforming loan locks averaged 6.35% three basis points (bps) lower than a week ago and closer to the 6.32% lowest level of 2025. Jumbo 30-year rates fell 4 bps compared to the prior week to 6.22%, while FHA 30-year loans were down from 6.2% to 6.18%. The government shutdown, which reached its 21st day on Tuesday,"
"The government has also postponed the release of key inflation data. The government plans to publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September on Friday, just a week before the Federal Reserve's next meeting on interest rates. Nearly 97% of market watchers expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.75%4%. Bank of America analysts said Monday in a report that they expect headline CPI to rise 0.3% month over month,"
"Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire, wrote that mortgage rates are near their 2025 lows, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4% marking the third time this year we have attempted to break through that key level in the bond market. Many who claimed higher rates were inevitable due to inflation, tariffs, federal debt, deficits and Treasury supply have overlooked a fundamental principle: 65% to 75% of where the 10-year yield and the 30-year mortgage rate can go is still determined by Fed policy,"
Thirty-year conforming loan locks averaged 6.35%, down three basis points week-over-week and nearing the 6.32% low for 2025; jumbo 30-year rates fell to 6.22% and FHA 30-year loans eased to 6.18%. The prolonged government shutdown has mainly affected federal employees and borrowers dependent on the National Flood Insurance Program or FHA-endorsed reverse mortgages, and has postponed key inflation data. The Consumer Price Index for September is scheduled a week before the Fed meeting, with almost all market watchers pricing a 25bp cut. A forecast expects headline CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month, and tariffs may sustain goods inflation while services inflation moderates. A large portion of future 10-year Treasury and 30-year mortgage rate movement remains tied to Federal Reserve policy.
Read at www.housingwire.com
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