"Mortgage Rates: Forecasters, including Fannie Mae, expect a gradual decline in 30-year fixed mortgage rates, potentially falling below 6% by the end of 2026. The rate's movement will be a major factor in improving affordability and unlocking demand from sidelined buyers. 10-Year Treasury Yield: This bond's yield influences mortgage rates. A stable yield near 4% in December 2025 suggested that lower mortgage rates would persist into 2026. Monitoring the yield will be important for anticipating changes in mortgage rates throughout the year."
"Housing Inventory: The balance between supply and demand is crucial. While inventory has been rising, it remains below historical averages. Tracking new listings and the number of active listings will indicate if the market is moving toward a more balanced state. A significant influx of inventory could put downward pressure on prices. Mortgage Purchase Applications: This forward-looking metric is a key indicator of buyer demand. An increase in applications in late 2025 suggested a positive start for 2026,"
"Home Prices: Forecasts for 2026 generally predict modest home price growth, with some regional variations. Data from the National Association of Realtors predicts a 4% home price gain in 2026, while Zillow predicts a more modest 1.5% national increase over the 12 months from October 2025. Price changes will vary by location, with some markets potentially seeing slight declines. Mortgage Spreads: Spreads between mortgage rates and Treasury yields have been near normal levels."
Forecasters expect a gradual decline in 30-year fixed mortgage rates, potentially falling below 6% by the end of 2026, improving affordability and unlocking sidelined buyer demand. The 10-year Treasury yield influences mortgage rates; a stable yield near 4% in December 2025 suggested lower mortgage rates into 2026. Housing inventory has been rising but remains below historical averages; new and active listings will indicate movement toward balance, and a large inventory influx could pressure prices downward. Mortgage purchase applications rose in late 2025, suggesting a positive start for 2026. Home price forecasts show modest national gains with regional variation, and mortgage spreads have been near normal levels.
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