Bright MLS forecasts 2026 as reset year, not a rebound

"Average mortgage rates are projected to stay above 6% next year, slipping from roughly 6.25% in early 2026 to around 6.15% by the fourth quarter as economic conditions soften. Existing-home sales are forecast to climb 9% to 4.51 million still well below pre-pandemic activity but an increase from recent lows. Inventory is projected to rise nearly 11% by year's end, reaching about 1.426 million homes for sale."

"The 2026 housing market will be shaped by uncertainty economic, demographic and regional, said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. While lower mortgage rates and more inventory will bring some buyers back, this will be a reset year, not a rebound year. Market performance will hinge on local economic conditions, making 2026 one of the most geographically divided markets we've seen in years."

"Price growth is expected to be stronger supply-challenged markets across the Midwest and Northwest. The same is said for tech-heavy markets such as San Jose, Calif., and San Francisco, where renewed demand is helping firm prices. Cooling conditions are expected in parts of Florida and Texas where listings have surged and in Seattle, Portland, Ore., and Denver, where demand has moderated since the pandemic."

Mortgage rates are expected to remain above 6% in 2026, easing slightly from about 6.25% in early 2026 to about 6.15% by year-end as economic conditions soften. Existing-home sales are forecast to rise about 9% to 4.51 million, and national inventory is projected to increase nearly 11% to roughly 1.426 million listings, pushing supply above 2019 levels. Median home price is forecast near $417,560, up 0.9%, with regional divergence: stronger price growth in supply-constrained Midwest, Northwest, and tech-heavy markets, and cooling where listings have surged. New construction will sit longer and more homeowners are expected to list, creating a reset rather than rebound year.

Read at www.housingwire.com