"Wildfire activity has increased in the US and is projected to accelerate under future climate change 13. However, our understanding of the impacts of climate change on wildfire activity, smoke, and health outcomes remains highly uncertain, due to the difficulty of modeling the causal chain from climate to wildfire to air pollution and health. Here we quantify the mortality burden in the US due to wildfire smoke fine particulate matter (PM2.5) under climate change."
"We construct an ensemble of statistical and machine learning models that link climate to wildfire smoke PM2.5, and empirically estimate smoke PM2.5-mortality relationships using data on all recorded deaths in the US. We project that smoke PM2.5 could result in 71,420 excess deaths (95% CI: 34,930 - 98,430) per year by 2050 under a high warming scenario (SSP3-7.0) a 73% increase relative to estimated 2011-2020 average annual excess deaths from smoke. Cumulative excess deaths from smoke PM2.5 could reach 1.9 million between 2026-2055."
Wildfire activity in the United States has increased and is projected to accelerate under future climate change. An ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models links climate variables to wildfire smoke PM2.5, and empirical smoke PM2.5–mortality relationships were estimated using data on all recorded US deaths. Under a high-warming scenario (SSP3-7.0), smoke PM2.5 is projected to cause 71,420 excess deaths per year by 2050 (95% CI: 34,930–98,430), a 73% increase relative to 2011–2020 average annual excess deaths. Cumulative excess deaths from 2026–2055 could reach roughly 1.9 million, indicating substantial public-health risks from climate-driven wildfire smoke.
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