"But the gains made in the first half of the century have slowed significantly - with no indication they will increase to 100 in the foreseeable future. Between 1900 to 1938, life expectancy rose by about 5.5 months with each new generation, they found. But since then the increase has slowed to roughly 2.5 to 3.5 months per generation - and is expected to continue to level off."
"Author José Andrade, from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, said: 'We forecast that those born in 1980 will not live to be 100 on average, and none of the cohorts in our study will reach this milestone. 'This decline is largely due to the fact that past surges in longevity were driven by remarkable improvements in survival at very young ages.'"
"Co-author Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, added: 'The unprecedented increase in life expectancy we achieved in the first half of the 20th century appears to be a phenomenon we are unlikely to achieve again in the foreseeable future. 'In the absence of any major breakthroughs that significantly extend human life, life expectancy would still not match the"
Data for 23 high-income countries show life expectancy rose from about 62 to roughly 80 since 1900. Early twentieth-century gains were largely driven by dramatic reductions in infant and child mortality, producing increases of about 5.5 months per generation between 1900 and 1938. Since then, generational gains have slowed to roughly 2.5–3.5 months and are expected to level off. Very low current infant and child mortality limits further boosts to overall life expectancy, because projected improvements at older ages are insufficient to replicate past gains. Without a major biomedical breakthrough that markedly extends adult survival, average lifespans are unlikely to reach 100 for current or near-future cohorts.
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