"When a goal has high rates of non-success, it can be tempting to push that out of mind. However, avoidance of reality rarely helps us, and data about failure points often reveals obvious ways to increase our success. Let's start with a silly but illuminating example. MOOCs -massive online learning classes have abysmal completion rates, usually under 10 percent. But a significant portion of non-completers are actually non-starters. Typically, around 20 to 30 percent of people who register don't even start the first lesson."
"In general, completion rates improve with each milestone achieved, but some milestones are more predictive than others. For example, among student pilots, getting signed off to fly solo represents a significant hurdle that many never reach. Identify which milestones are most predictive for your goal. You can break your goal down like this: What actions move you from one statistical bucket to another more favorable one?"
Many ambitious goals have low completion rates despite initial high motivation. Optimism alone is insufficient; strategies and changed behaviors are necessary. Facing objective facts about where people fail reveals clear opportunities to raise success, such as focusing on whether people start tasks. Completion likelihood tends to rise after key milestones, but some milestones are disproportionately predictive. Identifying and prioritizing those milestones lets one move from worse statistical buckets to better ones. Designing environments and choices to work with, not against, base rates increases the chance of achieving selective or high-attrition goals.
Read at Psychology Today
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