A memo from the International Asteroid Warning Network alerted the UN and government officials about Asteroid 2024 YR4, detected recently and projected to potentially hit Earth on December 22, 2032. The initial low impact probability of 1.3 percent has risen slightly, reflecting typical trends in observing newly discovered asteroids. Astronomers, however, believe this probability is likely to trend back down to zero as tracking improves. The situation highlights an increasing frequency of asteroid warnings, urging clearer communication to the public about risks and emphasizing that better detection does not imply imminent threat.
Heidi Hammel, vice president for science at the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, urged the public not to panic, emphasizing that improved detection does not equal imminent danger. “We have a better chance of finding these asteroids and understanding their orbits. It doesn’t mean they are a threat; we simply know about them now.”
Paul Chodas, director of the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, stated that there's a 98.4 percent chance the asteroid will not impact Earth, as probabilities often decline with better understanding. His insights highlight that early probability increases are common in such observations and usually stabilize.
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