The asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in December, now has a 2.3% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032, up from an initial risk over 1%. Astronomers, particularly from MIT, emphasize the importance of monitoring this asteroid, as it's the only known object registered on the Torino Scale. Its estimated size ranges from 130 to 300 feet. The asteroid will be visible until April before becoming too faint until June 2028. Ongoing observations will help refine its orbit and size, allowing scientists to assess the collision risk accurately and prepare for public safety measures.
"That's when we will probably refine its orbit even more, and also its size, and then the picture will be clear if it's gonna hit Earth or not, and how devastating that could be," MIT's Artem Burdanov said.
"We need to observe it more, and then we can make an informed decision about that, but it's good that we have telescopes and scientists who can do this type of work and inform the public about the threat," Burdanov said.
According to NASA's Sentry, a collision monitoring system, 2024 YR4 is the only known space object that registers on the Torino Scale, which is a tool for categorizing Earth impact events.
Burdanov compared 2024 YR4 to the Tunguska event, where a similarly sized asteroid exploded over Siberia in 1908, emphasizing the potential risks.
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