Research reveals that climate change significantly heightens the risk of fires in Los Angeles, stressing the relationship between low rainfall, prolonged drought, and extreme wind conditions. A recent study indicates that rainfall levels from October to December are now over twice as likely to be low compared to preindustrial times. Additionally, the fire season is extending by about 23 days as conditions favoring ignition become more common—a trend projected to worsen with rising global temperatures. However, causation remains complex with uncertainties noted.
Overall the paper finds that climate change has made the Los Angeles fires more likely despite some statistical uncertainty.
The scientists found that low rainfall from October through December is now more than twice as likely compared to the climate that existed before humans began burning fossil fuels.
The LA fire season is becoming longer, with highly flammable drought conditions lasting about 23 more days now than during the preindustrial era.
If global warming reaches 2.6°C above preindustrial levels, the conditions measured by the Fire Weather Index would become another 35% more likely to occur in January.
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