NASA's telescope detected asteroid 2024 YR4, measuring 295 feet, on December 27. Currently 30 million miles from Earth, there's a 1% chance it may impact in December 2032. However, the asteroid's trajectory may change as more data is collected. Most asteroids do not have a significant chance of impacting Earth, and astronomers believe it is overwhelmingly likely that 2024 YR4 will miss the planet.
When an asteroid is newly discovered, its trajectory can only be computed approximately, and a possible predicted collision with Earth years in the future may not be immediately ruled out.
It is overwhelmingly more likely that 2024 YR4 will miss the Earth in 2032 rather than impact.
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