""The idea was laughed out of the room," said Sam Ori, who worked on the 2007 exercise at the nonprofit Securing America's Energy Future. "The view was that it just wasn't credible and would be seen as alarmist.""
""I never looked at a map as precisely as I have done in the last few weeks at the Strait of Hormuz," Patrick Pouyanné, TotalEnergies CEO, told Axios in a recent interview. "It's part of the sea, anybody can navigate it.""
""The discussion was, 'come on guys, it has to be credible. That could never happen,'" Ori said on stage at a recent conference hosted by SAFE. "Modeling it meant confronting an 'economic apocalyptic scenario.'""
Energy experts assessed potential oil disruptions in 2007 and 2022 but did not model a full shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. They deemed it too unlikely or large-scale for meaningful planning. This blind spot reflects the 'dismal theorem,' which suggests that extreme, low-probability scenarios can overwhelm conventional analysis. The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for global energy, accounting for about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas. Experts have acknowledged underestimating the potential for its closure.
Read at Axios
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