A study evaluates the likelihood of success for Baseball America preseason top-five hitting prospects by using FanGraphs WAR accumulated during a player’s first six years of team control. The analysis targets the period 2007–2019 to capture prospects who have largely had their chance to make a major league impact. The sample includes roughly 50 players, accounting for repeat rankings across years and excluding players whose highest prospect ranking fell outside the top five. Jesus Montero is included, while Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. are excluded due to the study’s time limit. The method involves manual work to identify the correct six-year control window for each player.
"For what it's worth, Ackley fell outside this sample because he topped out at #11, while Kelenic was omitted because his highest prospect ranking in 2021 at #4. Jesus Montero is on here, while Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. are not only because I didn't extend the study that far back."
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