"Of the many unprecedented features of the last New York City mayoral election, one stands out as particularly surreal: A lot of people were betting real money on the result. Polymarket, the prediction platform that isn't yet legal in the U.S., claims to have processed more than $420 million in trading volume on the "candidate that wins" market alone (although that figure should be taken with a grain of salt). Kalshi, which is already legal here, says it processed more than $120 million."
"Prediction markets, which broke through during the 2024 presidential election, had become unavoidable in just one year: LinkNYC screens flashed betting odds to sidewalk passersby between weather reports; news articles listed Kalshi and Polymarket odds alongside polling numbers; and coping Cuomo supporters, including hedge-funder Bill Ackman, spun theories about whale traders distorting the markets in Zohran Mamdani's favor, echoing the wishful thinking of some Kamala Harris supporters in 2024."
Large sums of real money were wagered on the New York City mayoral race via prediction markets. Polymarket reports more than $420 million on its "candidate that wins" market, while Kalshi reports over $120 million. Prediction markets surged after the 2024 presidential election and gained public visibility on LinkNYC screens and in news coverage alongside polls. Supporters and observers spun theories about large traders influencing odds. Bettors placed increasingly specific wagers, including millions on candidates' winning-margin brackets, producing dynamic market odds that circulated widely during the campaign and counting.
Read at Intelligencer
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