"Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space -- find value. Ben Solak is out this week, so Matt Bowen is filling in with his own unique style. Bowen and Seth Walder bring different perspectives to how they approach sports betting. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league."
"These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere. Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. We'll try to keep the momentum going coming off a big week (Walder: 17-4, +13.1 units; Bowen: 6-1, +5.2 units)."
Week 5 NFL betting picks aim to find value across spreads, money lines, totals, and defensive player props. Two complementary approaches guide selections: tape-based matchup study leveraging former-player insight and statistical models identifying plus-expected value bets. Results are tracked using flat one-unit wagers per listed bet, with recent records showing one approach 17-4 (+13.1 units) and the other 6-1 (+5.2 units). Odds are sourced from ESPN BET Sportsbook. Defensive prop bets will be added as they become available. The first listed game pick favors the Los Angeles Chargers at home over the Washington Commanders despite Jayden Daniels' expected return.
Read at ESPN.com
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