Let's overreact to NFL Week 6: Russell Wilson to the bench? Chiefs' run over? Year of the Pack?

"It has been said by some -- well, by me, at least -- that Week 1 is the Super Bowl for the Overreactions column. Last year in Week 1, the Patriots beat the Bengals ... then didn't win again until Week 8. The Saints scored 47 points, 44 more in Week 2 ... then didn't win again until Week 10. The Commandes, with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, lost 37-20 to the Buccaneers ... then ended up in the NFC Championship Game."

"So go ahead and pretend that everything in the NFL is figured out. Assume the Chiefs are done, that the Eagles can't cover anybody, that the Giants won't score a touchdown all season and that the Falcons continue to be cursed. It's Week 1 of an 18-week schedule. You're almost certainly overreacting. But that's what we do here -- sort through the weekly overreactions to try and figure out which ones might hold up and which ones are mirages. Week 1 is tricky because we have so little evidence, but that's also what makes it so much fun."

"The Kansas City Chiefs won't win the AFC West this season Friday night's opener in Brazil didn't go well for the nine-time defending division champions. The Chiefs lost 27-21 to the rival Chargers. The offense, after losing speedy wideout Xavier Worthy to a dislocated shoulder on the third play, looked out of sync and non-explosive. The defense couldn't do a thing to slow Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes was running for his life a lot like he did last season."

Week 1 results often produce extreme conclusions that rarely hold across a full 18-week NFL season. Past examples include a Patriots Week 1 win followed by a long losing stretch, the Saints’ early scoring surge followed by a prolonged slump, and the Commanders losing in Week 1 but reaching the NFC Championship. Assuming season trajectories from a single game is usually an overreaction. Close examination of early outcomes helps identify which reactions might be durable versus which are mirages. In the Chiefs’ opener, Kansas City lost 27-21 in Brazil, suffered Xavier Worthy’s dislocated shoulder, showed an out-of-sync offense, and struggled to contain Justin Herbert, while Patrick Mahomes faced heavy pressure.

Read at ESPN.com