Using the Case-Shiller Price Index, the author notes a housing market recovery with inventory levels higher than in previous years. Although mortgage rates remain elevated, the median existing-home price has increased slightly. Current data indicates that housing sales, while showing a slight year-over-year decline, have stabilized at around 4 million transactions monthly. This trend is attributed to a growing inventory, indicating potential for improved affordability as wages rise. Confidence in forecasts has grown, reflecting better market conditions compared to previous years.
I primarily use the Case-Shiller Price Index to forecast prices, which has a history dating back to 1942. Inventory is higher this year than in 2024.
This year, the housing healing process appears to be better than last year, even with elevated mortgage rates.
Even with high rates, prices, taxes and insurance costs, we have not seen total existing home sales fall significantly.
Despite elevated mortgage rates, existing home sales have consistently remained at 4 million or above and purchase application data has been positive year over year.
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