The AARP New York–Gotham Polling & Analytics survey of 1,376 likely voters shows Zohran Mamdani with 41.8% support. Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo has 23.4%, Republican Curtis Sliwa 16.5%, incumbent Eric Adams 8.8%, 7.9% are undecided, and 1.6% support other candidates. In drop-out scenarios Mamdani rises to 48.4% if Cuomo exits and leads by double digits in other permutations. In head-to-head matchups Mamdani leads each rival, including 42%–31% over Cuomo, though 27% remain undecided in a Mamdani–Cuomo pairing. Favorability rates show Mamdani with 36% very favorable and 42% very unfavorable. Top issues include cost of living.
The poll also asked likely voters what would happen if some of the contenders were to drop out. In every scenario, Mamdani maintained his comfortable lead in the race. If Cuomo drops out, Mamdani rises to 48.4% support, ahead of Sliwa by 27.6 points (48.4%-20.8%). If Adams drops out, Mamdani leads Cuomo by 14 points, 42.6%-28.3%. If Sliwa drops out, Mamdani leads Cuomo by 16.8 points, 45.1%-28.3%.
Mamdani is also ahead of all challengers in theoretical head-to-head matches, with Cuomo emerging as the closest contender but still behind. If everyone but Cuomo drops out, Mamdani leads by 11 points, 42%-31%. In a theoretical head-to-head matchup with Mamdani and Cuomo, however, 27% of likely voters remain undecided, meaning they make up a key group that could decide the race in that scenario.
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