The public may judge the success of prediction markets based on the outcome of the election, with a Trump victory meaning the markets were right all along, while a Harris win means they messed up.
It's like claiming the stock market fails to value companies accurately simply because share prices change over time, says Lloyd Danzig, managing partner at Sharp Alpha.
Prediction markets are misnamed. They are betting lines intended to provide a price to wager on at a given moment in time - not necessarily to forecast whether the outcome is probable.
On prediction markets, bettors - or shall we call them investors? - can sell their contracts at a loss or a gain, depending on how the markets have moved.
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