Allan Lichtman bases his election forecasts on a unique set of 13 true-or-false questions, which he describes as the 'keys' to predicting electoral outcomes.
Lichtman argues that elections are a referendum on the incumbent party's track record, dismissing factors like candidate quality or campaign effectiveness as largely irrelevant.
#election-predictions #allan-lichtman #political-forecasting #historical-models #incumbent-party-performance
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