Allan Lichtman's predictive model successfully forecasted nine of the last ten US presidential elections. However, Trump broke this streak, leading to broader societal concerns.
Lichtman believes that losing his predictive streak is less significant than the implications for democracy. The key questions he considers transcend personal stakes.
Developed with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, Lichtman's 13 keys analyze political stability and upheaval, where losing six keys signals an incumbent party's likely defeat.
Despite the challenges he faces, Lichtman views the upcoming 2024 election as a difficult litmus test for his established predictive model.
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