"Driving the news: In the April-through-June quarter, GDP rose at a 3.8% annual rate, not the 3.3% most recently estimated - the highest since the fall of 2023. (The first estimate showed the economy grew at 3%.) Even better, the positive revision was driven not by volatile categories like inventories and trade flows, which don't tend to convey much information about underlying demand. Rather, it was fueled by an upward revision to consumer spending."
"Jobless claims came in at 218,000, roughly 14,000 fewer than the previous week - a continued reversal of the upward surge seen in recent weeks. Between the lines: A collapse in payroll job growth over the last few months has sparked worries about a broader slowdown underway. But it's always been an open question how much of that is because of immigration policy restricting the supply of workers, and how much a dearth of demand."
Q2 GDP was revised up to a 3.8% annual rate, the strongest since fall 2023, driven by higher consumer spending rather than volatile inventories or trade. Final sales to private domestic purchasers rose to a 2.9% annual rate in Q2, and about a 2.4% rate for the first half, indicating firmer trend growth. Jobless claims fell to 218,000, reversing recent upticks, even as payroll growth has slowed in recent months. Evidence points toward supply-side limits on labor, including immigration policy effects, reducing the likelihood of aggressive Fed rate cuts this year.
Read at Axios
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