An anomaly on Polymarket led to Donald Trump's presidential victory odds spiking to 99%. This temporary mispricing highlights the impact of large trades on betting platforms.
The 'GCorttell93' account made significant purchases totaling over $3 million, causing a brief 99% odds spike due to an order book's mechanics, despite actual odds being around 63%.
Polymarket uses a blockchain-based order book for price discovery, where each trade affects the odds. Large, concentrated purchases can drastically shift market sentiment and temporarily misprice outcomes.
The phenomenon of slippage occurred as large bets were placed, causing a portion to be filled at an inflated price, showcasing how dynamic and responsive prediction markets can be.
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