Assassinations tend to be chaos agents rather than agents of change," Jones says, highlighting the unpredictable consequences that come with such violent acts and their incapacity to resolve underlying political issues.
Our research reveals that there's very little research on the role of leaders as individuals, and it's difficult to test because leaders try to claim they were responsible for good and that the bad was out of their control," indicating the complexities in assessing a leader's true impact on a nation's direction.
The probability of a successful assassination is about 20%. However, the probability of an assassination attempt increases as the population of a country increases: Doubling the population increases the probability of an assassination attempt each year by 0.35%," illustrating how population dynamics affect political violence.
On the whole, assassinations are ineffective. In autocracies, where a leader has absolute power, a failed assassination often leads to more repression and violence rather than political change," making it clear that the political context shapes the outcomes of such attempts.
#political-assassination #leadership-impact #political-violence #research-findings #population-dynamics
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