"When you look at the wave for those who bought within one month or less, you see today's peak inches closer to the long-term trendline of major market peaks. While we have room to go higher, today's number could be off by 20% or more. We could be a lot closer than you think."
"Meanwhile, last week's drop in long-term HODLers has accelerated. 'Diamond hands' and bear market stalwarts have decided 'fiat' isn't as bad as they thought."
"As with all metrics that say 'realized' or 'short-term' in their title, you have to fudge the numbers to account for the Wall Street ETFs. Those ETFs can buy or sell any token at any time, independent of when their clients buy or sell their funds."
"Those ETFs account for no small portion of the on-chain activity. The problem will get worse over time. While you can't compare today's numbers with numbers from before January 2024, you can assume this metric still catches the general direction of behaviors."
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