Most political commentators are not trained in psychology or statistics, so they are prone to perpetuate common misinterpretations of polling results and political preferences. In the next month, here is what we should watch out for.
The most frequent and frustrating mistake political commentators make is labeling any poll as a statistical 'dead heat' if the difference between candidates is within the margin of error (MoE). In fact, a dead heat is suggested only when the candidates are actually tied in the poll.
A small and consistent difference in the polls can lead to large differences in the voting booth. If Candidate A leads Candidate B by 3 percentage points over a period of two months, the 3 percent lead is meaningful.
Extrapolating from small differences in polling can mask underlying influences that can affect the outcome of elections. Measurement error should be noted but not misinterpreted.
#political-analysis #polling-misinterpretation #election-predictions #statistical-errors #voter-preferences
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