"A new Northwestern Medicine study published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology has introduced a first-of-its-kind online calculator that uses percentiles to help younger adults forecast and understand their risk of a heart event over the next 30 years. With rates of obesity, diabetes and hypertension rising among younger Americans, the study authors say identifying long-term risk earlier could help bend the curve on future heart disease, the leading cause of death in the U.S. and worldwide."
"The free tool, designed for adults aged 30 to 59, calculates a person's 30-year risk of developing heart disease using common health measures, such as blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking status, diabetes history and kidney function. After a person enters their information, the calculator displays their percentile rank among 100 peers of the same age and sex, along with a simple visual."
""We are all used to percentiles for standardized testing or when checking our children's growth charts," said senior study author Sadiya Khan, '09 MD, '14 MSc, '10, '12 GME, the Magerstadt Professor of Cardiovascular Epidemiology and an associate professor of Medicine in the Division of Cardiology. "But this is the first time percentiles have been translated and applied to long-term risk for heart disease. When a patient sees they are in the 90th percentile, we hope that this will serve as a wake-up call that risk starts early and prevention efforts and activities can reduce that risk and should not be put off.""
A first-of-its-kind online calculator forecasts 30-year heart disease risk for adults aged 30 to 59 using percentiles. The tool inputs common measures — blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking status, diabetes history and kidney function — to compute an individualized 30-year risk and then displays the result as a percentile among 100 same-age, same-sex peers with a simple visual. The calculator uses the American Heart Association PREVENT equations and is available free. The output is intended to encourage patient-clinician conversations and prompt earlier prevention, not to substitute for clinical care, amid rising obesity, diabetes and hypertension.
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